The threat of war escalation is on the rise

Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky participated in the panel discussion “Violence next door” of the Brain Bar 2023 future festival. The two other speakers – security expert Brendan McNamara and Martin Gurri, former CIA analyst, author of the book “The Revolt of the Public” – agreed with the minister of defence that peace is the most important thing.

Speaking about the possibility of the outbreak of a third world war, the minister of defence said that the chances of the escalation of the war are extremely high as long as there is an ongoing open armed conflict. “The intensity of the war is now seemingly decreasing because the belligerents are unable to gain the upper hand militarily, but the forces standing behind them and the determination to choose an armed solution do not promote world peace”, he said.

According to Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky, it was the international community’s decision that led to the situation in which the war has escalated into a global conflict. The apparently not too quick, intensive Ukrainian counteroffensive may trigger a major reaction. This is the exact reason why “we have always stood on the side of peace”, on the side of the ceasefire and the peace talks, highlighted the minister.

The minister of defence spoke highly of NATO, stating that one thing is certain, namely that NATO is working. He noted that when the war broke out, NATO took quick action and initiated a process in which Hungary is also taking part.

During the conversation, Brendan McNamara stated that he cannot see anyone who would try to mitigate the Ukrainian conflict or initiate ceasefire talks. Instead, it seems that weapons with longer ranges are being sent that can be used to attack Russia and Ukraine alike, he added.

Martin Gurri said that in a structural sense, what we are now going through is less about the huge, centralized blocs of the allies that fought each other in the 20th century. We are witnessing disintegration, which started around 1990, when Hungary gained its freedom. The thing we have to fear the most is the internal disintegration of the countries involved, he said. According to the former CIA analyst, everybody must understand that the best way to prevent conflicts is to be strong, to have allies and to never succumb to panic.